In a rare turn of events, Ilya Yashin, a vocal critic of Vladimir Putin, and Margarita Simonyan, a Kremlin loyalist known for her fierce propaganda, found themselves on the same page. What brought these unlikely allies together? The surprising arrest of Pavel Durov, the elusive founder of Telegram, Russia’s most popular messaging app. This unity across the political spectrum is a testament to Telegram’s unique and irreplaceable role in Russian society.

Late Monday, French prosecutors announced that Durov was detained as part of an investigation into alleged criminal activities on Telegram and his refusal to cooperate with law enforcement. According to Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau, the investigation focuses on crimes including illicit financial transactions, child exploitation, fraud, and Durov’s failure to provide crucial information to authorities.

Yashin took to X (formerly Twitter) to express his support: “I do not believe Pavel Durov is a criminal, and I hope he will be able to prove his innocence in court.” This sentiment was echoed across the Russian opposition, who have long admired Durov for his defiance against the Russian authorities. As the young CEO of VKontakte (Russia’s answer to Facebook), Durov had famously refused an FSB order to shut down opposition pages—a move that eventually forced him out of the company, marking him as one of the few tech entrepreneurs to stand up to the Kremlin.

Durov’s next venture, Telegram, was built on the foundation of user privacy, introducing features like “channels” that enable users to broadcast messages to large audiences. This blend of Twitter-like reach and email-like focus made Telegram indispensable for organizing anti-Putin protests, and it quickly became the go-to platform for those seeking free speech in a country where such a right is increasingly under threat.

Despite ongoing rumors that Durov may have struck a deal with the Kremlin, Telegram has remained a key platform for dissent, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The government’s crackdown on independent media and its ban on Western social media platforms only heightened Telegram’s importance.

Now, with Durov’s arrest, many in Russia are worried that his cooperation with French authorities could lead to severe repercussions back home. There’s fear that Moscow might finally succeed in shutting down Telegram or could demand similar access to the platform’s encrypted data, compromising the very privacy Durov has long championed. For the Kremlin, which has had multiple failed attempts to ban Telegram, Durov’s arrest is being spun as a propaganda victory.

On state-run media and talk shows, the narrative is clear: Durov’s detention is proof of Western hypocrisy when it comes to free speech. Kremlin propagandists have wasted no time in pushing baseless claims that Western intelligence agencies orchestrated the arrest to gain access to Telegram’s encryption keys, potentially exposing the private communications of millions of Russians.

“Anyone using the platform for sensitive communications should delete those conversations immediately and never use it again,” warned Margarita Simonyan in a Telegram post. “Durov has been compromised, and he will hand over the keys.”

Meanwhile, Baza, a Telegram channel linked to Russia’s security services, reported that orders were quickly sent out to the defense ministry, key business figures, and security officers, instructing them to erase work-related messages from Telegram.

The future of Telegram now hangs in the balance. Analysts are concerned that Durov’s arrest could severely damage Telegram’s financial stability and its ability to secure future funding. There’s also increasing anxiety over whether the app can maintain its strong privacy protections, especially after reports surfaced that French authorities are attempting to access its database of private chats.

The collapse of Telegram—a platform that by early 2023 was responsible for handling up to 80% of Russia’s total messenger traffic—could have widespread implications. Among those most affected would be the Russian military and a network of pro-war bloggers who have risen to prominence by covering the ongoing conflict on Telegram.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Telegram has served as a vital communication tool for the Russian military and as a platform for the Kremlin to push its war narrative to the Russian public.

“They’ve basically detained the person in charge of the Russian army’s communications,” lamented the popular Russian military blog, Povernutie na Z Voine, in a Telegram post.

Telegram is also widely used by ordinary Ukrainians and the Ukrainian military, primarily for fundraising and war-related updates. However, for internal communications, the Ukrainian military mostly relies on the Signal app.

Rybar, a military analyst closely aligned with the Russian government, described Telegram as “arguably the most important tool for command and control within Russian military units.” He noted that Durov’s arrest exposes significant weaknesses in Russia’s communication infrastructure and highlights the urgent need for state-controlled alternatives.

“It would be ironic, if not tragic, if Durov’s arrest were to spur major changes in the Russian military’s communication systems,” Rybar concluded.

Durov’s detention has cast a shadow over his legacy and put the future of Telegram—a platform that has become deeply embedded in both Russian dissent and state-controlled narratives—in serious jeopardy.